In the 1950s the American geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that US oil production would peak in 1970 and thereafter begin to decline. Although he was ridiculed at the time his prediction was later found to be true. This pattern is being repeated around the world as new discoveries fail to keep pace with demand for oil and it becomes an increasingly rare and expensive commodity. New oil fields such as the Alberta tar sands are being discovered but prove complex and costly to exploit. The crucial point is that oil will not run out immediately but that world production may already have reached its peak bringing an end to the age of cheap oil. The question is not if but when.
"World oil production could well plateau within the next 20 years, and I guess I would be surprised if it hadn't ... we may be sleepwalking into a problem which is actually going to be very serious and it may be too late to do anything about it by the time we are fully aware"
Lord Ron Oxburgh (former Chairman of Shell)
This means that everything made out of oil will become more scarce and expensive, petrol, plastics, synthetic clothes.
The food in supermarkets is flown or shipped from far away. If oil runs out this will no longer happen. Kinsale in Ireland has started to plan what to do as oil runs out. This means producing their own food and changing the way they travel: http://transitionculture.org
Rob Hopkins was invited to Jersey in 2006. He stated that American oil production peaked in 1970 and that there is an exponential increase in cost with rising scarcity. He referred to the Hirsch report from the US department of Energy 2006:
'The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking'
Rob Hopkins also stated that we now use 6 barrels of oil energy to find 1 barrel. He emphasised the importance of creating a vision of an abundant future without oil and gave the example of Cuba. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, parkland has been turned over to food production and the balconista grow food on their balconies. A good grower can earn more than an engineer. There are many exciting opportunities for Jersey including closer links with France and a wealth of oil free heritage to draw upon.
Would you like to be part of a group looking at an energy descent plan for Jersey? Contact info@sustainablejsy.org